The 42nd Annual Country Music Association Awards will be handed out tonight, November 12, at the Sommet Center in Nashville with Brad Paisley and Carrie Underwood tag-teaming as co-hosts for the event airing live on ABC. (I know, I know, I am extremely late with this blog.)
Country's best and brightest will be on hand to perform and present awards this year. In probably the biggest performance and collaboration of the night, Brad Paisley and Keith Urban will team up to perform their hit "Start a Band." Other performers include, Sugarland, George Strait, Carrie Underwood, Taylor Swift, Kid Rock, Kenny Chesney, Lady Antebellum, Trace Adkins, the Eagles and many more.
There aren't not too many suprises among this year's nominees. However, one particular nomination of note is Sugarland's first nod for the coveted Entertainer of the Year Award. They are still relatively new to headlining, but their shows are very fun and high energy and play to large crowds. However, I'm not sure if Jennifer Nettles and Kristian Bush can bring down the big boys just yet.
In the male, female, duo and group categories, I am predicting repeat wins by Brad Paisley, Carrie Underwood, Sugarland and Rascal Flatts, as the other nominees in their respective categories have not had quite the same measure of blowout success this past year, and these artists have all been on top of their game the past couple of years.
I am looking forward to the many spectacular performances and waiting for something unique and fresh, especially from Sugarland and Taylor Swift, who always go that extra mile on their awards shows performances. Who can forget Sugarland's sliding stage floor and the "rain" pouring down on Taylor at the ACM's earlier this year?
Now, for the list of nominees. Here are my predictions and thoughts on who will win and who should win for each category. I usually do fairly well with my picks each year, but you never know how the CMA members will vote from one year to the next. Please keep in mind I am no expert or industry insider and these are just my opinions. Okay, here it goes:
Entertainer of the Year:
Kenny Chesney
Brad Paisley - will win; should win
George Strait
Sugarland
Keith Urban
Three-time winner and reigning Entertainer of the Year Kenny Chesney had yet another majorly successful year on radio and out on tour, selling out venues everywhere he goes with his Poets and Pirates Tour. I love Sugarland and would love to see them win on their first nomination, but, it might be a bit too soon for them. I think their time will come in another couple of years. In the meantime, however, could this be the year that Brad Paisley, also coming off of a hugely successful year with hit singles and the wildly fun Paisley Party Tour (which I just happened to catch last month), finally get his due as entertainer after several previous nominations? I hope so. Plus, how much fun would it be to watch the co-host of the evening walk away with the big prize mere seconds before signing off the show until next year? Good luck Brad!
Female Vocalist:
Alison Krauss
Miranda Lambert
Martina McBride
Taylor Swift
Carrie Underwood - will win; should win
Carrie Underwood, in all liklihood, will take the three-peat in the female vocalist category based on yet another wildly successful album filled with consecutive, multi-week number one smash hits and a sell-out tour. Taylor Swift could give Carrie a run for her money this year, but I think it might be a bit soon for her, even though Carrie won her first trophy very quickly. Taylor has a massive teeny-bopper fan base and that might hurt her a bit with the CMA big wig voters. Even though she won the Horizon Award last year and the New Femal Vocalist at the ACMs earlier this year, I think Taylor will have to sit this one out until perhaps next year. Martina McBride and Alison Krauss have been CMA darlings in the past, but neither one has had the year that Carrie and Taylor have had. Which leaves, Miranda Lambert. She has not had the breakthrough chart success of the other nominees as yet and she has a harder edge to her personality and music than the others, so that also might hurt her chances a bit.
Male Vocalist:
Kenny Chesney
Alan Jackson
Brad Paisley - will win; should win
George Strait
Keith Urban
Mr. Paisley should easily take home the trophy for a repeat of last year. His Paisley Party has been playing to sold out crowds across the country, and his string of hits continues to grow. However, you can never underestimate or count out the other power house artists in this tough category, who have all had a great year.
Vocal Group:
Eagles
Emerson Drive
Lady Antebellum
Little Big Town
Rascal Flatts - will win; should win
In another repeat win, Rascal Flatts will take home their sixth vocal group trophy. These guys seem to be unstoppable and will leave the other deserving nominees in the dust once again. I love Lady A, but it is still too soon for them to win this award and they haven't amassed the amount of hits and large fan base of the Flatts boys just yet. Their turn will come soon enough, though, if they continue on their current path of success.
Vocal Duo:
Big and Rich
Brooks and Dunn
Montgomery Gentry
Sugarland - will win; should win
The Wreckers
At last year's CMAs, Sugarland was shocked and excited to break B&D's record winning streak as Duo of the Year. They could easily repeat based on the success of their Love on the Inside release and tour, as well as the residual effects of last year's smash tour de force single "Stay." However, the Brooks and Dunn boys won the ACM to keep their streak there alive, so it could be a toss up between the two. I do think Sugarland has the edge, though.
New Artist:
Jason Aldean
Rodney Atkins
Lady Antebellum - will win; should win
James Otto
Kellie Pickler
In what was formerly known as the Horizon Award, three artists are repeat nominees in this category. Jason Aldean, Rodney Atkins and Kellie Pickler were nominated last year but lost out to it girl Taylor Swift. Rodney is still riding the wave of his stretch of back-to-back multi-week number hits, while Jason and Kellie, although they are popular with fans, have not had the succes of Atkins. Throw Lady Antebellum, quickly becoming industry favorites with a rabid fan following, into the mix and you have one big toss up. This category, as always, remains the toughest one for me to call each year.
Album of the Year: (Award goes to artist and producer)
Carnival Ride - should win
Artist: Carrie Underwood
Producer: Mark Bright
19 Records Limited/Arista Nashville
Cowboy Town
Artist: Brooks and Dunn
Producers: Tony Brown, Ronnie Dunn and Kix Brooks
Arista Nashville
Good Time
Artist: Alan Jackson
Producer: Keith Stegall
Arista Nashville
Just Who I Am: Poets and Pirates
Artist: Kenny Chesney
Producers: Buddy Cannon and Kenny Chesney
BNA Records
Troubadour - will win
Artist: George Strait
Producers: Tony Brown and George Strait
MCA Nashville
Each of the nominated albums have sold very well and produced multiple hits, making this category difficult to call. I think Carrie's Carnival Ride might have the advantage, but you just never can tell how the CMA voters will cast their ballots.
Single of the Year: (Award goes to artist and producer)
"Don't Blink"
Artist: Kenny Chesney
Producers: Buddy Cannon and Kenny Chesney
BNA Records
"Gunpowder and Lead"
Artist: Miranda Lambert
Producers: Frank Liddell and Mike Wrucke
Columbia Records
"I Saw God Today"
Artist: George Strait
Producers: Tony Brown and George Strait
MCA Nashville
"Stay" - will win; should win
Artist: Sugarland
Producers: Byron Gallimore, Kristian Bush and Jennifer Nettles
Mercury Nashville
"You're Gonna Miss This"
Artist: Trace Adkins
Producer: Frank Rogers
Capital Records Nashville
Following the uber success of Sugarland's single "Stay" at the ACM's earlier this year, where it took home single and song honors, I think the powerful Jennifer Nettles vocal tour de force will win both categories here at the CMAs as well.
Song of the Year: (Award goes to songwriter and publisher)
"Good Time"
Artist: Alan Jackson
Songwriter: Alan Jackson
Publishers: EMI-April Music; Tri-Angels Music
"I Saw God Today"
Artist: George Strait
Songwriters: Rodney Clawson, Monty Criswell and Wade Kirby
Publishers: Big Red Toe; Extremely Loud Music; Steel Wheels Music; Blind Mule Music
"Letter to Me" - should win
Artist: Brad Paisley
Songwriter: Brad Paisley
Publishers: EMI-April Music; New Sea Gayle Music
"Stay" - will win
Artist: Sugarland
Songwriter: Jennifer Nettles
Publisher: Jennifer Nettles Publishing
"You're Gonna Miss This"
Artist: Trace Adkins
Songwriters: Ashley Gorley and Lee Thomas Miller
Publishers: EMI Blackwood Music; New Songs of Sea Gayle; Noah's Little Boat Music; Songs of Combustion Music
This one will be a toss up between the powerful songs "Stay" and "Letter to Me."
Musical Event:
"Another Try"
Artists: Josh Turner with Trisha Yearwood
MCA Nashville
"Every Other Weekend"
Artists: Reba McEntire with Kenny Chesney
MCA Nashville
"Gone, Gone, Gone"
Artists: Robert Plant with Allison Krauss
Rounder Records
"Life In a Northern Town" - should win
Artists: Sugarland with Little Big Town and Jake Owen
Mercury Nashville
"Shiftwork" - will win
Artists: Kenny Chesney with George Strait
BNA Records
Kenny Chesney and "King George" will likely take this category, as both are fan and industry favorite and this song was huge hit at radio this year. Even though Allison Krauss doesn't get the radio play she deserves, her collaborative album, Raising Sands, with Robert Plant was a critical smash and could sneak in with a suprise win. However, if I had my way, my personal favorite, "Life in a Northern Town," would win. I love the vocal collaboration and harmonies worked out to perfection by Sugarland, Little Big Town and Jake Owen. And watching them perform the song live on the CMT Awards earlier this year was the highlight of that awards show. But since it was a live recording and not super successful on radio as a single, we'll see what happens.
Music Video of the Year: (Award goes to artist and director)
"Don't Blink"
Artist: Kenny Chesney
Director: Shaun Silva
"Good Time"
Artist: Alan Jackson
Director: Trey Fanjoy
"Stay" - should win
Artist: Sugarland
Director: Shaun Silva
"Waitin' on a Woman" - will win
Artist: Brad Paisley
Director: Jim Shea
"You're Gonna Miss This"
Artist: Trace Adkins
Director: Peter Zavadil
Another tough one to call. All are great videos. Brad Paisley could follow up last year's video win with the hysterical "Online" with the sentimental "Waitin' on a Woman," which features a guest appearance by legend Andy Griffith. On the other hand, Jennifer Nettles gave such a raw, powerful and emotional performance in the bare bones video for "Stay" and could take home the trophy for Sugarland.
Musician:
Jerry Douglas - dobro - will win; should win
Paul Franklin - steel guitar
Dann Huff - guitar
Brent Mason - guitar
Mac McAnally - guitar
Last year's winner, Randy Scruggs, isn't nominated this year, so I will go with Jerry Douglas. All five, however, are great musicians and have a shot at winning. I just don't know enough about any of them to be able to accurately make a prediction, so I am going with my gut on this one.
The CMA Broadcast Award winners were announced prior to tonight's award show. The winners were:
Station of the Year:
Major Market: WQYK - Tampa, Florida
Large Market: WFMS - Indianapolis, Indiana
Medium Market: WIVK - Knoxville, Tennessee
Small Market: WGSQ - Cookeville, Tennessee
Broadcast Personality:
National: Lon Helton - CMT Country Countdown USA (Westwood One)
Major Market: Randy and Dave (Randy Price and Dave McKay) - WQYK - Tampa, Florida
Large Market: Gerry House and the House Foundation (Gerry House, Mike Bohan, Duncan Stewart, Al Voecks and Richard Falklen) - WSIX - Nashville, Tennessee
Medium Market: Andy and Alison and the Morning Crew (Andy Ritchie, Alison West and Jimmy Holt) - WIVK - Knoxville, Tennessee
Small Market: The Good Morning Guys (Brian Gary and Todd Harding) - KUAD Fort Collins-Greeley, Colorado
Well, once again, this is my take on who will win big at this year's CMA Awards. I'll be keeping a tally and taking notes as the show airs to see how well I did compared to the bigwig critics and industry insiders. Of course, I'll be back here after the show with a recap of the winners, losers, surprises and performances.