It’s that time of year again, ladies and gentlemen. The 41st Annual Country Music Association Awards will be handed out Wednesday, November 7, on ABC. For the first time in the award show’s history, the show will utilize multiple artists as co-hosts, rather than the traditional one host format. This should shake things up a bit and hopefully make the show a bit more lively and interesting.
While the list of hosts is incomplete at this time, many top-notch acts have already been lined up to perform. Rascal Flatts will perform a number with Jamie Foxx, and the Eagles will make their first appearance on the CMA stage for a performance of their first single from their first studio album in nearly 30 years. Reba McEntire and LeAnn Rimes will join forces to perform their duet “When You Love Someone Like That” from Reba’s Duets cd. Another unique performance will be when Brad Paisley is joined onstage by a high school marching band to perform his current hit “Online.” Other performers scheduled to grace the CMA stage include Carrie Underwood, Martina McBride, Kenny Chesney, Brooks and Dunn, Sugarland, George Strait, Bon Jovi, Alison Krauss, Jason Aldean and Kellie Pickler, among many others.
The list of nominations held a few surprises this year, including a female vocalist nod for Miranda Lambert and a vocal group nomination for the Dixie Chicks. But, perhaps the biggest surprise was the lack of nominations for country super couple Tim McGraw and Faith Hill. Hot on the heels of the success of their Soul to Soul II Tour, I was expecting at least a couple of nominations for them. Instead, Tim’s only nod comes in the form of his contribution to his buddy Tracy Lawrence’s smash “Find Out Who Your Friends Are,” which is nominated in the vocal collaboration category. Surprisingly, Sara Evans and Toby Keith also were left without nominations this year. On the flip side, Brad Paisley, who is on a hot streak these days, and “King George” Strait each received five nominations this year.
Interesting to note is that, once again, no female artists have been nominated for the coveted entertainer of the year category. No female artists have been nominated for this award since the Dixie Chicks in 2001. With the strong roster of women in country music these days, it is high time they are recognized by the CMA voters for their contributions to the industry. One glaring omission is Martina McBride, who has headlined her own tours for many years and always puts on a great show. Along with Martina, many young female artists are stepping up their game and holding their own with the big boys on tour, and they deserve to be recognized for their efforts. (Okay, done with my little rant.)
Now, for the list of nominees. Here are my predictions and thoughts on who will win and who should win for each category. I usually do fairly well with my picks each year, but you never know how the CMA members will vote from one year to the next. Please keep in mind I am no expert or industry insider and these are just my opinions. Okay, here it goes:
Entertainer of the Year:
Kenny Chesney - will win
Brad Paisley - should win
Rascal Flatts
George Strait
Keith Urban
With the success of his Flip Flop Summer Tour, Kenny Chesney will more than likely repeat as entertainer this year, making it a total of three entertainer awards in four years. However, Brad Paisley is quickly nipping at Kenny’s heels for that honor, thanks to the success of his Bonfires and Amplifiers tour. Both artists give their fans a lot of bang for their buck and always have a fun show. Kenny’s stage show is a no holds barred, rowdy escape, and Brad is just an all-around great entertainer who has the whole package. He can knock you to your knees with a beautiful ballad like “When I Get Where I’m Going” and turn around and make you laugh along with his wacky sense of humor on songs like his current single “Online” - not to mention he can play one mean electric guitar.
Female Vocalist:
Alison Krauss
Miranda Lambert
Martina McBride
Reba McEntire
Carrie Underwood - will win; should win
The undeniable force that is Carrie Underwood will make it two in a row with a win in this category. Country music’s current “it girl” arguably has had the most commercially successful year of all the nominees. And with her debut album Some Hearts still riding high on the country charts nearly two years after its release, not to mention the current wave of publicity surrounding the release of her highly-anticipated follow-up disc Carnival Ride on October 23, I predict she is a shoo-in for this award.
Male Vocalist:
Kenny Chesney
Brad Paisley - will win; should win
George Strait
Josh Turner
Keith Urban
Brad Paisley is on a roll this year and will quite possibly bring Keith Urban’s three-year reign as male vocalist to an end. Two-time entertainer of the year winner Kenny Chesney, however, is long overdue for a win in this category and could also take home the trophy. All three are known for their lively and energetic stage shows and have large fan bases, so it’s anybody’s guess who will win. Josh Turner’s young career is definitely picking up steam, but the newest member of the Grand Ole Opry with the deep voice may have to wait another year or two to wrestle the award away from the big boys.
Vocal Group:
Alison Krauss & Union Station Featuring Jerry Douglas
Dixie Chicks
Emerson Drive
Little Big Town - should win
Rascal Flatts - will win
As a huge Little Big Town fan, I personally would love to see them pull the upset in this category. Their harmonies are undeniable, and they are rapidly gaining a large fan base and industry respect after years of struggle amidst many professional and personal setbacks. It is their time to shine. However, no one can deny the popularity and success, not to mention the chart and radio domination, of Rascal Flatts, who will more than likely make it five wins in a row in this category.
Vocal Duo:
Big and Rich
Brooks and Dunn - will win
Montgomery Gentry
Sugarland - should win
The Wreckers
Oh, I think I’ll go out and a limb here and say Brooks and Dunn will win “their” award yet again. The guys have still got it after all these years and still have the great music and fan base to continue their streak for many more years to come. However, Sugarland has really come into their own as a duo over the past couple of years, building a very loyal fan base of rabid fans with a wild and fun stage show. They are currently headlining CMT on Tour 2007, a huge step up from opening for other acts like Kenny Chesney. Could this finally be the year another duo wins the “Brooks and Dunn Award,” or will the beloved duo get win #15? The last time someone interrupted B&D’s winning streak, which began in 1992, was when Montgomery Gentry won in 2000; So, as much as I would love to see someone else win, my money is on Kix and Ronnie to win once again.
Horizon Award:
Jason Aldean
Rodney Atkins
Little Big Town - should win
Kellie Pickler
Taylor Swift - will win
This category, hands down, is the most difficult for me to call. All five acts have had a huge breakthrough year with hit singles and new, large fan followings. Little Big Town has gone through many ups and downs over the years before finally breaking through with their huge smash hit “Boondocks” and their phenomenal “The Road to Here” release, filled with amazing harmonies and several other hit singles. However, voters more than likely will go with teen sensation Taylor Swift, who has a huge fan following and is quickly earning respect from her peers and the industry as a singer and songwriter. Both acts have been part of huge tours this year and have had much exposure, LBT with Martina McBride and Taylor with Brad Paisley.
Album of the Year: (Award goes to artist and producer)
5th Gear, Brad Paisley - will win
Producers: Frank Rogers and Chris DuBois
Arista Nashville
It Just Comes Natural
George Strait
Producers: Tony Brown and George Strait
MCA Nashville
Long Trip Alone
Dierks Bentley
Producer: Brett Beavers
Capitol Records Nashville
Love, Pain & the Whole Crazy Thing
Keith Urban
Producers: Dann Huff and Keith Urban
Capitol Records Nashville
These Days - should win
Vince Gill
Producers: Vince Gill, John Hobbs and Justin Niebank
MCA Nashville
Brad Paisley has released another wonderful album filled with hit singles to go for the repeat win this year. Unfortunately, Vince Gill’s ambitious four-disc, 43-song labor of love has gone mostly unnoticed at radio, and as a result will not get the win against the other releases in this category.
Single of the Year: (Award goes to artist and producer)
“Anyway”
Artist: Martina McBride
Producer: Martina McBride
RCA Records
“Before He Cheats” - will win; should win
Artist: Carrie Underwood
Producer: Mark Bright
19 Recordings Limited/Arista Records
“Lost in This Moment”
Artist: Big & Rich
Producers: Big Kenny and John Rich
Warner Bros. Nashville
“Ticks”
Artist: Brad Paisley
Producers: Frank Rogers and Chris DuBois
Arista Nashville
“Wrapped”
Artist: George Strait
Producers: Tony Brown and George Strait
MCA Nashville
Carrie Underwood will continue her CMA hot streak with a win in this category. The song, from her debut cd, was a multi-week number one smash on the country charts, and after its run there, it crossed over to the pop and adult contemporary charts, where it continued to reign. This song was everywhere and simply refused to die.
Song of the Year: (Award goes to songwriter and publisher)
“Anyway” - will win
Songwriters: Martina McBride, Brad Warren and Brett Warren
Publishers: Delemmava Music, Bucky and Clyde Music
“Before He Cheats”
Songwriters: Josh Kear and Chris Tompkins
Publishers: That Little House Music, Mighty Under Dog Music and Sony/ATV Cross Keys
“Give It Away”
Songwriters: Bill Anderson, Buddy Cannon and Jamey Johnson
Publishers: Sony, ATV Tree, Mr. Bubba Music, Slow Run Music and EMI Blackwood
“Lost in This Moment” - should win
Songwriters: John Rich, Keith Anderson and Rodney Clawson
Publishers: Rich Texan Music, Warner-Tamerlane, Writer’s Extreme, EMI April Music and Romeo Cowboy
“Stupid Boy”
Songwriters: Dave Berg, Deanna Bryant and Sarah Buxton
Publishers: Song Planet, That Little House Music, Cal IV Songs and BergBrain Music
Big and Rich showed a softer, gentler side with “Lost in This Moment,” which has become a popular wedding song of late. However, Martina McBride’s first recorded effort as a songwriter, a song about following your dreams no matter what, will likely win over the CMA voters, who may not be ready to recognize Big and Rich just yet. The duo is still better known for more rowdy fare, such as “Save a Horse, Ride a Cowboy,” which still polarizes many mainstream country fans, and this may hurt their chances in this category.
Musical Event:
“Because of You” - will win; should win
Artists: Reba McEntire with Kelly Clarkson
MCA Nashville
“Find Out Who Your Friends Are”
Artists: Tracy Lawrence featuring Tim McGraw and Kenny Chesney
Rocky Comfort Records, CO5
“Hey Good Lookin’” (Live)
Artists: Jimmy Buffett with George Strait and Alan Jackson
MCA Nashville
“Missing You”
Artists: Alison Krauss and John Waite
Rounder Records
“The Reason Why”
Artists: Vince Gill with Guest Vocalist Alison Krauss
MCA Nashville
Reba McEntire and Kelly Clarkson’s huge smash, released as the first single from the highly anticipated Reba Duets project, will win this category hands down. The fact that the song has the accompanying dramatic and theatrical video fans have come to expect from Reba certainly doesn’t hurt the song’s chances.
Music Video of the Year: (Award goes to artist and director)
“Anyway”
Artist: Martina McBride
Directors: Robert Deaton and George J. Flanigen IV
“Before He Cheats” - will win
Artist: Carrie Underwood
Director: Roman White
“Moments” - should win
Artist: Emerson Drive
Director: Steven Goldmann
“Online” - should win
Artist: Brad Paisley
Director: Jason Alexander
“You Save Me”
Artist: Kenny Chesney
Director: Shaun Silva
This category will come down to whether the CMA voters go for the humorous tale of a duel online identity, a girl’s anthem of revenge against a cheating boyfriend or the touching story of not judging someone who is down on their luck. This is another tough category to call.
Musician:
Eddie Bayers Jr. – Drums
Jerry Douglas – Dobro
Dann Huff – Guitar
Mac McAnally – Guitar
Randy Scruggs – Guitar - will win; should win
I’ll be honest, this is the category I know the least about, but Randy Scruggs is a wonderful musician who has won this award several times before, so the odds are in his favor.
Well, there you have it folks, my take on who will win at this year’s CMA Awards. I’ll be keeping a tally and taking notes as the show airs to see how well I did compared to the bigwig critics and industry insiders. Of course, I’ll be back here after the show with a recap of the winners, losers, surprises and performances.
